AG RISK UPDATES

Argentina
The government's 20 per cent reduction on natural gas and water subsidies, an effort to narrow the large deficit, could trigger further discontent and protests are likely.


Bolivia
President Morales will find it increasingly difficult to reconcile a legitimate trade in coca leaves with the violent criminality of the cocaine smuggling business.

Bosnia and Herzegovina
Officials from Bosnia and Herzegovina are expected to oppose calls by the president of the Autonomous Republika Srpska for a referendum on NATO membership, heightening sectarian divisions in the country.

China - United Kingdom
The Bank of England will sign a deal with the People's Bank of China to enable the clearing and settlement of yuan transactions in London, helping China achieve its goal of turning the yuan into a major reserve currency. However, the yuan remains unlikely to supersede the dollar any time soon due to government controls still making yuan-denominated cross-border trades difficult.

Guinea (Conakry) - Senegal - Cote d'Ivoire - Liberia - Sierra Leone
Senegal's Interior Ministry closed the land border with Guinea in an attempt to prevent the spread of West Africa's first major Ebola outbreak. Guinean officials claimed not to have received notification of this decision and said the threat had been exaggerated. Officials in western Cote d'Ivoire, also bordering Guinea, have denied reports of a suspected case in Toulepleu. Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d'Ivoire may follow Senegal and close their borders with Guinea if the contagion spreads over the coming days.

Libya
Operations in the oil sector will continue at a fraction of capacity until the government can find a solution to blockades, either through negotiation or the use of force against the armed rebel groups responsible.


Moldova
Russia maintains 1,400 peacekeepers in Transnistria, and is likely to use their presence to pressure both the Ukrainian and Moldovan governments, both of which have now signed Association Agreements with the EU.
North Korea - South Korea
North and South Korea exchanged fire across a disputed maritime border off the Korean peninsula's western coast. South Korea returned fire after shells landed south of the border during a North Korean live-fire drill. Tensions have been heightened recently by a series of North Korean missile test launches and US-South Korea joint military exercises. With North Korean rhetoric increasingly bellicose and ongoing military activities increasing the chance of a miscalculation, an escalation of tensions remains possible.

Paraguay
A general strike, which closed schools and most businesses in Asuncion, reflects growing discontent among the population and President Horacio Cartes is likely to face further pressure by the opposition.

Philippines
Despite the government signing a final peace accord with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), ending the group's decades-long insurgency and paving the way for the establishment of a new autonomous region in the country's Muslim south, other Moro separatist groups did not sign the accord and progress towards full stability in Muslim areas will likely be gradual at best.

Russia-Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov remains deadlocked with his US counterpart after new talks. Moscow laid out tough demands for a neutral Ukraine, stipulating that it will not join NATO and that it will provide extensive autonomy for predominantly Russian-speaking southern and eastern regions, but denied plans for invasion, despite the military build-up on Ukraine's border. Washington continues to press for troops to pull back from the border and the admittance of international observers to Crimea.

Venezuela
While President Nicolas Maduro agreed to enter talks with Venezuela's opposition with the help of an outside facilitator; the government and the opposition are unlikely to reach a sustainable agreement in the short term.