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Curent world threats 10/11/2015

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Curent world threats 10/11/2015

Post by Ted-Pencry on 10/11/2015, 17:15

Risk Updates

If a trucker protest against transportation taxes and fuel price hikes continued for a prolonged period, it could turn violent.

The security situation is expected to remain volatile over the coming weeks, particularly in opposition areas in northern Bujumbura.

The country has suffered a series of deadly attacks in its northern areas the past months where further attacks against soft targets are likely to occur over the medium term.

Jihadist militants have stepped up attacks in remote areas around Lake Chad and are expected to continue attacks over the medium term despite the new security measures.

The ELN kidnappings of two soldiers is likely to slow the peace process, but may not be detrimental if the soldiers are released unharmed.

The alleged leader of the Islamic State (IS) affiliate in Egypt was reportedly killed in a shootout with security forces in the El-Marg neighbourhood of Cairo. Ashraf Ali El-Gharably was reportedly a senior commander of Wilayat Sinai, the Sinai-based militant group which claimed it conducted a terrorist attack that downed the recent MetroJet Flight 9268 over the Sinai on 31 October. Egyptian officials also announced for the first time they were investigating the possibility a bomb brought down the plane. The group continues to conduct attacks on local and foreign targets and further attacks are likely.

Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) claimed to have secured a parliamentary majority in the 8 November general election. Although the official count remains ongoing, early results show the NLD performing very strongly. The party said that it has won at least 380 seats across both houses. The number required for a majority is 329. If the NLD's claims are true it will be able to nominate its own president and form a government.

Left-wing parties in Portugal's parliament, including the Syriza-inspired Left Bloc and the Communist Party, are likely to oust the minority government of Prime Minister Pedro Paulo Coelho's Portugal Forward and create a leftist government. The move is likely to set off a dispute with the EU over Portugal's commitment to economic reforms if the parties then roll back austerity as expected.

Russia - Egypt
According to state-run media, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced during a meeting of Russian government officials that flights between Russia and Egypt were unlikely to resume in the foreseeable future. The decision will likely have a notable impact on the Egyptian tourism industry as Russians are single largest tourist group in Egypt, estimated to make up over one fifth of visitors in recent years.

MPs from the Popular Unity Candidacy and the Together for Yes coalition successfully passed a resolution supporting independence from Spain in the Catalan parliament. The plan calls for the establishment of an independent judiciary and treasury and calls for independence to be realised within 18 months. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is to file an appeal with Spain's Constitutional Court. However, the resolution also holds the court's ruling should no longer be valid with regards to Catalonia, which could prompt a political standoff.

Further violence is likely over the coming weeks and will focus on the south-east of the country, where major energy and power infrastructure has been attacked over recent months.

There has been a significant increase in the level of violence in eastern Ukraine over the past week, with regular clashes once again taking place on the outskirts of Donetsk and, albeit less frequently, elsewhere across the frontlines. The developments come as Ukrainian, Russian, German and French leaders have begun a renewed push on extending the Minsk peace agreements, which would likely collapse by year's end unless an extension is agreed. There is a high risk that clashes could escalate and become widespread at short notice.

Prices could remain at around their current US$50 mark for a prolonged period, with Saudi Arabia unlikely to cut production and Iranian exports set to rise.

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