World Intel

Bahrain
Following clashes between demonstrators and police after a memorial for a Shi'ah man jailed during the 2011 crackdown on anti-regime protests, further unrest is likely in Bahrain. However unrest is unlikely to reach the heights seen in early 2011.


Egypt
Further protests are to be expected after Mubarak-era prosecutor-general Abdel Meguid Mahmoud managed to retain his position despite an attempt by President Mursi to reassign him. Protesters are angry at the recent acquittal of defendants accused of involvement in last year's infamous 'camel battle'. The latest protests on 12 October left up to 100 people injured.

France
Prosecutors claimed that a police raid on 6 October that led to a number of arrests uncovered plans to carry out terrorist attacks on French targets. A cache of weapons and explosive material was also reported to have been discovered. The alleged terror network will raise concerns that France is increasingly harbouring home-grown terrorists who are actively recruiting on French soil.

Guinea
President Alpha Condé's appointment of an entirely civilian government is unlikely to dilute the power of the military in the short-term.


Malawi
By preventing the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (Mera) from enacting new fuel pump prices, the Malawian government risks compromising vital donor aid by appearing to revert back to old economic policies.

Mali
A UN Security Council resolution on Mali was passed unanimously on 12 October, paving the way for a possible endorsement of international military intervention into the north. African institutions now have 45 days to submit a detailed plan for such action, although full Security Council backing requires another resolution. The fragility of the political landscape in Bamako means that resistance from Mali's military is still a possibility.

Mexico
The death of Zetas leader Heriberto Lazcano on 7 October is likely to prompt further disintegration of the cartel in northern Mexico. Other cartels are likely to capitalise on the removal of Lazcano and overtake key territorial points in central states such as Zacatecas and potentially eastern states such as Veracruz as well.

Nigeria
Further political jostling over the benchmark price for oil set in the 2013 budget is expected and disagreements could continue into 2013.

Peru
The Shining Path's growing links with drug traffickers have afforded it renewed operational scope which it will continue to press to its advantage against government interests and, increasingly, foreign investors in the country's poorer regions.

Syria
Clashes between government and rebel troops in the town of Maarat al-Numan are more than likely.