Current Risk Updates

Risk Updates

Burkina Faso
Opposition parties staged a mass demonstration in Ouagadougou to protest against the attempted abolition of constitutional term limits by the ruling party of President Blaise Compaore, who has been in power since 1987. Up to 500,000 people took to the streets and while the protest was peaceful, further attempts to adjust the constitution could trigger more violent unrest in the country.


Central African Republic
Lawmakers met in Bangui to elect a new interim president following the resignation of former leader Michel Djotodia. Eight candidates have been shortlisted. The new president will face growing levels of violence across the CAR with high levels of ethnic and sectarian tension. EU ministers are expected to approve additional military support for French and African peacekeepers currently in-country and struggling to stem the tide of violence.


Colombia
Although the FARC rebel group has not claimed responsibility for a 16 January bomb attack against a police station in Valle del Cauca, the group is expected to increase its pressure on the government over the coming months in order to have its demands fulfilled as part of the ongoing peace negotiations.


Egypt
The approval of the new constitution could give a significant boost to General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who is expected to announce his candidacy for president.


Greece
Incidents, similar to 14 January's improvised incendiary device explosion outside the political office of Interior Minister Yiannis Michelakis in central Athens, are likely to remain common as the country's economy continues to suffer.


India
Rahul Gandhi's elevation to lead the ruling Congress Party's general elections campaign is unlikely to change the fortunes of Congress, which looks certain to lose a large proportion of seats and its governing status in May.


Iran
Iranian officials stated that the country will begin suspending production of 20 per cent enriched uranium over the coming days. The agreement will give Iran increased access to funds held overseas, and will see an easing of restrictions against the petrochemicals and auto industries. Iran has built up around US$100bln in foreign exchange assets, of which it will be able to access around US$4.2bln under the agreement.


Israel - UAE
Israel's Energy Minister Silvan Shalom's visit to the UAE for a renewable energy conference could signal a slight improvement in relations between Israel and the Gulf States. Relations deteriorated after the assassination of Hamas commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in the UAE in 2010.


Kenya
There is a risk that non-Somali al-Shabaab members, who are defecting and crossing into Kenya in increasing numbers, could form militant cells in other east African countries. Al-Shabaab also continues to attract new foreign members and a number of would-be recruits have been detained on borders crossing into Somalia. The group will continue to pose a regional terrorist threat.


Kosovo
Incidents similar to 16 January's killing of an ethnic Serb politician in Mitrovica will remain isolated incidents of violence but common, given the high level of tensions between ethnic Albanians and Serbs in northern Kosovo.


Kyrgyzstan
Osh will remain vulnerable to ethnic tensions which have the potential to prompt isolated clashes and possible wider civil unrest.


Malawi
Trials over the 'cashgate' scandal that implicated a number of senior politicians and businesspeople in corruption are likely to cause ripples at the highest levels, particularly if President Joyce Banda is implicated in the run-up to elections.


Mali
Mali could suffer from a security vacuum once the French cut their troop deployment from 2,500 to 1,000 as the UN has failed to position sufficient peacekeepers. Long-standing tensions between Tuareg separatists and the government, as well as the presence of Islamist extremist groups, will continue to generate insecurity in the north of the country.


Maritime
While the International Maritime Bureau documented a 40 per cent drop in Somali piracy in 2013, small numbers of opportunistic attacks continue to occur, highlighting the need for continued vigilance mainly in the Gulf of Aden and northern Arabian Sea.


Nigeria
Nigeria's crude oil production forecast of 2.39m barrels a day in the 2014 budget may be over-estimated. Continued bunkering in the Niger Delta region and tension over the forthcoming 2015 general elections mean that the country is unlikely to achieve a substantial increase in production.


Puerto Rico
There is a risk that other sectors could join teachers in additional strikes over the coming weeks as the government continues to take measures to avert financial disaster.


Spain
With Catalonia's regional parliament voting in support of asking Madrid for the power to hold a referendum on secession from Spain, Prime Minister Rajoy will come under increasing pressure to defuse rising nationalist sentiment by offering tax distribution concessions.


Syria
Clashes between suspected Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants and rival rebel groups, including members of Jabhat al-Nusra and other more moderate Islamist groups such as Ahrar ash-Sham, are likely to continue over the coming weeks.


Uganda
While Uganda's budget deficit is likely to be close to seven per cent in 2013-14 and the current account deficit above 10 per cent, infrastructure investment, solid growth potential and political stability should partly offset the risks from fiscal and external imbalances.


Ukraine
Anti-government protests in Kiev turned violent after tens of thousands of people participated in rallies despite the introduction of anti-protest legislation. The security forces were reported to have used stun grenades, tear gas and water cannon whilst protesters confronted them with petrol bombs, stones and firecrackers. A working group is to meet with opposition leaders on 20 January in an attempt to defuse the situation. However, this outbreak of violence will increase tensions in the short term and further clashes will remain likely.


Yemen
16 January's suspected al-Qaeda attack on an army base in the city of Rada'a, around 100km south of Sanaa, is the latest in a string of militant attacks on government officials and installations, which are expected to continue over the coming weeks.