Risk Updates

A bill that designates all royalties from newly discovered oil fields to education and healthcare is likely to help President Rousseff recover her popularity among some social sectors. However, widespread grievances against the government will continue to challenge her presidency and further protests are expected.

CHILE

Powerful miners' unions are likely to turn to unannounced strikes in an attempt to coerce their employers to acquiesce to their demands for better working conditions. Therefore, incidents similar to the 24-hour unannounced strike by over 2,500 workers at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine owned by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, could reoccur ahead of the November presidential election.

ECUADOR
President Rafael Correa's decision to end a scheme that sought to persuade developed countries to pay Ecuador not to drill for oil in a pristine Amazon rainforest preserve will result in a licencing process for rights to drill in the area. Indigenous and environmental protests against the decision are likely.

EGYPT
At least 24 policemen were killed and three others were wounded in an ambush by Islamist militants near the town of Rafah in North Sinai governorate. The policemen were returning to their barracks in Rafah when they were attacked by the militants, who fired machineguns and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) at their convoy. Levels of militancy in North Sinai governorate have increased significantly over recent months, particularly following the military's intervention to oust former Islamist president Mohammed Morsi.

EUROZONE
While the Eurozone is showing signs of a slow expansion, the region's growth is still meagre and a recovery is a distant prospect. Several countries will continue to struggle and while the immediate risk of a crisis recedes, political turmoil in Greece and Italy could yet reignite sovereign debt fears. 

INDIA
There is a possibility of incidents similar to 15 August's grenade attacks in the north-eastern state of Assam. The attackers belong to militant groups fighting for an independent homeland in Assam and some will continue to pursue their agenda through violence.

INDONESIA
While President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said he raised concerns over growing religious intolerance in the country, there is no sign that he will push policies to tackle the issue before the elections in 2014. Over the past 24 months Indonesia has seen a rise of increasingly violent attacks on religious minorities, which the government has been accused of failing to respond to and the religious affairs minister recently came under fire for supporting the forced conversion of Shi'ah Muslims to Sunni Islam.

JAPAN
Government debt hit one quadrillion yen (1,000,000,000,000,000) for the first time in June.  Japan's debt is over 200 per cent of its GDP and worth almost US$10.4 trillion. Interest rates are currently low, although if Prime Minister Abe fails to generate a recovery there is a risk that rates will spike. The country's vulnerable fiscal position will likely force Abe to push forward with a politically controversial consumption tax.

LEBANON
Although Beirut has been largely spared of significant violence, there remains a risk of violent incidents over the coming months, similar to 15 August's explosion of a bomb near a Hizbullah facility between Roueiss and Beir al-Abed districts in the predominantly Shi'ah south of the city that killed at least 22 people and injured 290. The risk is highest in predominately Hizbullah controlled areas in the south of the city.

LIBYA
The Libyan government could turn to force to stop security personnel from interrupting activity at the country's main harbours through strike action. Ongoing strikes have severely hampered Libya's oil exports, costing the country US$1.6bln in lost revenue since 25 July.

MADAGASCAR
The electoral court cancelled the candidacies of former president Didier Ratsiraka, President Andry Rajoelina and Lalao Ravalomanana, wife of former president Marc Ravalomanana. Although rejected for technical reasons, the removal of these candidates has long been advised by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and other international observers. Their absence will be positive for Madagascar's general elections on 23 August, which many hope will usher in some elusive political stability after four years of crisis.

MOZAMBIQUE
Clashes between RENAMO and government security forces in Sofala, central Mozambique could have a negative impact on foreign investment over the coming months. RENAMO could potentially carry out attacks on transport infrastructure, including the crucial coal-exporting Sena railway line.

NICARAGUA- COLOMBIA

US company Noble Energy will begin drilling for oil and gas in an area that the International Court of Justice granted to Nicaragua after a decades-long dispute with Colombia. The project has triggered strong opposition from environmental groups and the Colombian government, but it is strongly supported by President Daniel Ortega and will unlikely be halted despite potential protests against it.

RUSSIA - UKRAINE
While a Russian clampdown on imports of Ukrainian goods will likely only be temporary, it represents a rapid deterioration in bilateral relations as Moscow seeks to apply pressure ahead of Kiev's possible signing of an association agreement with the EU in November.

SOUTH AFRICA

Despite a recent decline, criminality will remain a key security problem facing South Africa. High unemployment, under-resourced police forces and a lack of basic services in many areas have contributed to this pervasive problem, with crime rates expected to remain amongst the world's highest.

THAILAND
Further peace talks between the government and separatist group the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) is likely to be protracted, and the government is remaining cautious of the group's demands over conditions for any future meetings. In the interim, violence is likely to continue unabated in the southern provinces.

UNITED STATES
The release of further classified documents, which show that the NSA broke privacy rules and overstepped its legal authority many times in the past two years, will add to the ongoing domestic and international grievances against the spy programme, further challenging the Obama administration.

ZIMBABWE
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) called on the US and EU to lift sanctions against Zimbabwe following peaceful general elections in the country, arguing that Zimbabwe has 'suffered enough'. Having in some cases agreed to follow SADC rulings on the Zimbabwe election, the situation now presents a challenge for Western foreign policy. Serious doubts remain over the legitimacy of President Mugabe and ZANU-PF's election victory. It is unlikely that all sanctions against Zimbabwe's political leaders will be lifted.