Risk Updates

Chile
The decision by Chilean police to use water cannons to disburse a student and fishermen led protest against the introduction of new fishing quotas will likely incite similar protests in the capital.

China – India
Strategic competition between China and India is likely to escalate in the coming year, as increasing Chinese influence within India's periphery and boarder disputes strain relations between the countries. Still, there is interest on both sides to improve what is becoming an increasingly important economic relationship.

Colombia
Tensions over Colombia's maritime boarder with Nicaragua are likely to continue despite an International Court of Justice ruling, as President Santos reacted to the unfavourable verdict by rejecting the ICJ's jurisdiction.

DRC
Under the supervision of the Ugandan army, M23 rebels pulled out of Goma to head just outside of the 13 mile agreed buffer zone while talks with the government continue. According to the regionally-brokered agreement, 100 M23 troops will stay in Goma airport. The demands from the rebels and thus the mandate for the talks are wide-ranging and sometimes contradictory, including reform to the military and political reform in Kinshasa. Renewed rebellion in the Kivus remains a risk.

Egypt
Judges in Egypt refused to oversee a referendum on the country's draft constitution, which was recently called by President Mohammed Mursi for 15 December. Opponents of the president, who is a close ally of the Muslim Brotherhood which now dominates the recently elected parliament and constitutional assembly, are mostly made up of liberals and former regime supporters. They have accused Mursi of seeking to increase his own grip on power and rush through a new constitution which was mainly written by his Muslim Brotherhood allies.

India
The launch of anti-corruption activist, Arvind Kejriwal, political party the Aam Aadmi, comes at an opportune time, but without a strong organisational structure and a positive agenda it is unlikely to attract mass support nationwide.

Israel
Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni newly formed centrist party "Hat'nua” (The Movement) is expected to take some seats in January's election, but is unlikely to oust Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Mali
While Ban Ki-Moon gave guarded UN support to West African military intervention into Northern Mali, deployment is still likely to be some time away as fundamental questions of how the force would be led, sustained, trained, equipped and financed remained unanswered. Any military intervention is likely to begin with months of training for the Malian army and will also likely be conducted alongside political negotiations with some members of the groups holding the north.

Mexico
Violent protests took place in Mexico City on 1 December as Enrique Peña Nieto assumed Mexico's presidency promising to achieve peace and economic growth. Despite tight security controls, protesters threw Molotov cocktails against police using tear gas and rubber bullets, injuring a number of policemen and demonstrators. The protests were against the return of the PRI party and what opponents called vote-buying by the president's campaign, giving Peña Nieto a difficult start to his six-year administration.

North Korea – Northeast Asia
Tensions between North Korea and its neighbours are set to increase as Pyongyang voiced its intention to launch a long-range rocket between 10 to 22 December, which it claims is a satellite although other states claim it is a ballistic missile test. The date will overlap with upcoming presidential elections in South Korea, a general election in Japan, and follows a major leadership change in China and the re-election of President Obama in the US. Japan said it will shoot down the rocket if it crosses into its airspace while Seoul and Washington have condemned the proposed launch.

Papua New Guinea
Political stability is likely to increase, as parliament unanimously voted for the provision of a thirty-month grace period for any vote of no-confidence against a newly-elected government, which should allow ministers to spend more time on governing rather than on constant political wrangling.

Philippines
The continued success of the Philippine economy, together with improvements in tax collection measures, means that the Aquino government is likely to see its foreign currency denominated debt rise to investment grade in the near future.

Sierra Leone
Calls by the opposition Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) for its 42 members of parliament to boycott proceedings in protest over alleged fraud during the presidential election is unlikely to have much of an impact on the government.

Thailand
Political tensions between the government and those trying to reignite an anti-government movement will likely remain following a failed no-confidence vote in parliament on 28 November, and anti-government protests on 24 November. However, the government's position is relatively strong due to strong economic growth and a stable relationship with the military and judiciary. Still, underlying social tensions mean that violent protests are possible in the coming weeks and months although they are likely to be contained by the security forces.

Tunisia
Security forces fired tear gas and live rounds into the air on 1 December in an attempt to quell unrest in the town of Siliana to the northwest of the capital Tunis. Siliana has seen a week of clashes around social and economic issues, as its residents have grown increasingly frustrated with a lack of progress following the revolution in January 2011. Further unrest is likely in Tunisia, where dozens of clashes have occurred between secularists and hard-line Salafi Muslims.

Yemen
The ability of elements linked to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), to strike at the heart of Yemeni security in Sanaa mean that there is a high risk of incidence similar to 28 November's murder of a Saudi diplomat over the coming six months.