Global Risk Updates

Argentina
On 8 November demonstrators gathered in Buenos Aires to protest against the government of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. The protest was one of the largest seen since the economic collapse of 2001. Fernandez's popularity has plummeted since her re-election in 2011, especially in urban areas, a result of high inflation, the government's hostility towards foreign investors and currencies as well as its determination to push unpopular foreign policy issues and shut down free press. Unrest is likely to continue.

Bahrain
There is a risk of incidents similar to the 5 November bombings in Manama, although attacks are likely to remain small, a large scale mass causality attack cannot be ruled out.

Burma (Myanmar)
The recent outburst of violence in western Burma which has left scores dead, thousands of homes destroyed and 30,000 people displaced, may harm the country's attempt to cultivate an image as a promising market for foreign investors if the government does not make genuine steps to alleviate hostilities and underlying problems in the region. Mainstream public hostility to the muslim minority is likely to inhibit any government efforts at widespread naturalisation, particularly as the country prepares for 2015 elections.

China
While outgoing president Hu Jintao has said economic growth requires a revamped economic model and political reform, his replacement Xi Jinping will likely have to consolidate power before implementing any significant policy moves. However policy signalling from the new standing committee and the final leadership line-up that will be announced by 16 November could have a powerful impact on people's expectations and sentiment.

Greece
Parliament approved the 2013 budget on 11 November, winning 167 votes. By approving the budget, after agreeing to further austerity cuts on 7 November, Greece has made significant steps in accessing a EUR31.5bn tranche in bailout funding, though European officials insist that the disbursement is not yet a done deal. Even if Greece receives the funds, it faces a more immediate default risk. The country has until 16 November to repay EUR5bln on maturing short term debt, and has no clear plans as to how it will avoid default.

India
Corruption allegations again BJP party president Nitin Gadkari is likely to seriously hurt the party, as it will struggle to portray itself as an clean alternative to the corrupt Congress Party. Gadkari is likely to remain as party president, thanks to the support of the RSS and the party base.

Israel – Syria
Israel fired a guided missile into Syrian territory, likely as a warning shot, after Syrian mortar fire landed in the Israeli-occupied Golan heights on 11 November. No casualties were caused during the exchange but personnel in the Golan heights should note the inaccuracy of mortar fire. Indiscriminate damage and casualties could occur in the event of any further indirect fire attacks in the area while Israel could also escalate its retaliations. For now, AKE has affirmed its security risk ratings for both countries but these will be raised if skirmishes become more regular and destructive.

Japan
A compromise between the government and the Liberal Democratic Party on a crucial bill to prevent a substantial funding shortfall is likely by the end of November, as failure for the parties to reach an agreement will severely damage the world's third largest economy. Prime Minister Noda may call an election by the end of the year following his pledge for Japan to join talks on the US-led trans-Pacific Partnership.

Pakistan
The death toll over the past week in Karachi rose to 83 after separate shooting incidents killed at least two and injured several others. The recent wave of violence in the city comes ahead of the Islamic holy month of Muharram when sectarian confrontation between Shi'a and Sunni Muslims rises, often resulting in hundreds of deaths. More police have been deployed to the affected areas but the situation is still not under control. Violence will likely remain high until the end of Muharram in mid-December.

Philippines
While President Aquino ordered a crackdown on 'private armies' (groups that are a mix of government-supported militiamen, insurgents, rogue police, soldiers or armed thugs who are hired by politicians to help them stay in power), and they have fallen in number since 2010, they are likely to continue to perpetrate acts of political violence in the run-up to elections in May 2013. In the meantime, the government is making headway with key rebel groups the MLNA and MILF but Al-Qaeda affiliated Abu Sayyaf group continues to pose a major security threat in the country's south and has refused to enter into talks.

Ukraine
Even if there is a partial recount of ballots from October's parliamentary elections, and opposition candidates claim victory in disputed seats, Yanukovych's Party of Regions party and its allies would still likely retain parliamentary control.

United States
Although Obama has retained the presidency, his government will still face significant difficulties in pushing legislation through Congress as the Republicans are likely to continue to offer stiff opposition, especially worrying as the deadline approaches for a bi-partisan agreement over tax rises and spending cuts.

Yemen
Further incidences like the shooting dead of a security officers near the Interior Ministry in the capital Sanna, are likely over the coming months, especially as Islamist militants linked to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have demonstrated a willingness and an ability to strike at the heart of the country's security apparatus over the last eight months.